H1 2025 Market Review

From Panic to Peaks: What the First Half of 2025 Taught Us About Resilience

The first half of 2025 unfolded like a financial rollercoaster, keeping investors on edge. Markets swung from deep drops to record highs, with headlines and geopolitical flashpoints driving rapid shifts in sentiment.

Global Highlights

U.S. Markets

Q2 began with fresh U.S. tariffs under President Trump that rocked global markets. By April, the S&P 500 was down nearly 18%, and Nasdaq had dropped over 23%. The VIX—Wall Street’s fear gauge—spiked to levels not seen since the early pandemic era.

Safe-haven assets like gold and silver surged, driven by central banks aggressively stocking up. The Federal Reserve’s delay in rate cuts, combined with rising Middle East tensions, painted a gloomy picture, with inflation fears and downward earnings forecasts clouding the outlook.

But the mood turned sharply in late Q2. A ceasefire between Israel and Iran, breakthroughs in U.S.-China trade talks, and a pause on further tariff hikes helped stabilize sentiment. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended June at new all-time highs, reversing losses and posting over 5% gains for the year so far.

European Markets

Europe’s benchmarks followed a similar path. The FTSE 100 and Germany’s DAX reached record levels by mid-year, while indices in France, Italy, and Spain narrowed their gap to all-time highs. The European Central Bank maintained a cautious stance on rate policy amid better-than-expected GDP growth.

Asian Markets

In Asia, China and the U.S. finalized a trade agreement from the Geneva summit, helping boost Chinese markets in Q2. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) noted improving sentiment despite persistent deflation concerns and weak domestic demand. Japan’s markets also posted positive returns, aided by steady policy rates and firming export data.

Half-Year Spotlight

The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 4.25%–4.5% for four consecutive meetings. But beneath the surface, division grew: seven Fed officials now expect no cuts in 2025, while eight still anticipate two. That split underscores just how uncertain the road ahead is.

Meanwhile, oil prices jumped early in the year due to geopolitical shocks but stabilized by June. Inflation ticked slightly higher in May, with Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred metric) rising 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year.

H1 2025 Market Performance

Index Last Price YTD Return
S&P 5006,198.015.38%
Nasdaq Composite20,208.894.62%
Dow Jones Industrial Average112,367.815.50%
Shanghai Composite3,459.743.79%
Hang Seng24,221.4120.75%
EURO STOXX 501,529.798.23%
FTSE 1008,752.404.30%
CAC 407,730.974.75%
DAX23,709.601.09%
Nikkei 22539,762.48-1.33%
Nifty 5025,453.407.65%
DFMGI (Dubai)5,669.156.09%
ADX Index (Abu Dhabi)9,919.825.32%
Tadawul (Saudi)11,129.261.38%
Silver36.2925.55%
Gold3,343.3427.39%
US Dollar Index96.96-10.63%

H2 2025 Outlook: Cautious Optimism

As we step into the second half of 2025, the market tone remains cautiously optimistic. Stable inflation and a resilient labor market are providing a foundation for continued growth. However, policy uncertainty around tariffs, taxes, and interest rates could stir volatility.

We continue to recommend:

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Disclaimer and Contact Information

Disclaimer

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. For detailed insights, contact our investment team.

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